POLY-MARKET Research Note
What are prediction markets?
A short introduction to prediction markets, event contracts, probability signals, and why they are becoming relevant for European market intelligence.
Published by POLY-MARKET · May 2026
Prediction markets are systems where people express views about future events in probability-based form. Instead of asking only what someone believes will happen, a prediction market tries to turn expectations into a measurable signal.
A simple example
If a market shows a 60% probability for an event, it suggests that participants or observers currently consider that outcome more likely than not. The value of the signal is not that it guarantees the future. The value is that it gives a structured, changing estimate of what the crowd currently expects.
Prediction markets vs polls
Polls usually ask people what they prefer or believe. Prediction markets are different: they are designed to reflect expectations about outcomes. In market-intelligence work, both can be useful. Polls can show opinion; probability signals can show expectations.
Why they matter for market intelligence
Prediction markets can help researchers, investors, journalists, and operators understand how expectations move over time. When new information appears, probability signals may change quickly. This makes them useful as one input in a wider market-intelligence process.
Key concepts
- Event: a future outcome that can be observed or settled.
- Probability signal: an estimate of how likely the market or crowd considers an event.
- Market sentiment: the broader direction of expectations around a topic.
- Event contract: a structured instrument or product connected to a defined future outcome.
The POLY-MARKET view
POLY-MARKET studies prediction markets as information systems. The focus is not only on whether a specific event happens, but on how expectations are formed, measured, updated, and interpreted across different markets and jurisdictions.
Follow POLY-MARKET research
Subscribe to the POLY-MARKET Weekly Brief for updates on European prediction markets, regulatory developments, and market-sentiment research.
Disclaimer: This article is published by POLY-MARKET for general information and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, betting, gambling, legal, tax, or regulatory advice.